Let's talk a little about #coronavirus,

First off: this situation is unprecedented.

Elements of it are not, but they have not been brought together on this scale and with this intensity.

That said, it was absolutely predictable and if anyone says otherwise, they're lying. Govts and corps think short term, look past. 

Secondly, just because disasters are used to expand State power and contract movements doesn't mean the disease is a conspiracy. It's not beyond govts to use disease for control, obviously, but that doesn't mean it's a hoax nor does that change the flow of a virus once it's out. 

Here's the quick takeaway:

Collapse does not mean here one min, gone the next. Collapse is a process of simplification for societies and systems. It can be big or small... 

...BUT we are talking about a globalized civilization that is technologically dependent and mostly about upkeep and logistics.

We're not just talking big, we're talking BIGGEST.

That said, it doesn't mean it's lights off unilaterally one day, just that they will. 

A lot of collapse theory focuses on a single causation, which is ridiculous. I recommend Joseph Tainter's Collapse of Complex Societies which focuses on diminishing returns. Effectively collapse and things like peak oil don't mean getting to zero, but when costs outweigh production 

Civilization, the culture of cities, is based on a mathematical impossibility: infinite growth on finite sources.

All civilizations and empires collapse, but in a smaller world, some remains could be eaten or absorbed by other imperial forces. Globalization undoes all of that. Disregard that chump Jared Diamond, pick up Brian Fagan. 

Paraphrasing Floods, Famines and Emperors:

Climate change, war, and famines don't cause collapse alone, but the combination sets the stage for politicians to do them in. Inevitably, politicians lying don't feed mouths. 

Always remember:

"Those who claim they control the cosmos and the future of civilization survive only as long as they are able to command the loyalty of their subjects."

- Brian Fagan 

That said, pandemics and disease clearly can play a huge role in the collapse.

And this one has been well underway for some time. The 2008 recession slowed it, tolerance for $100 barrel oil brought fracking... there have been lifelines that have worsened the ecological onslaught. And due to that, the #anthropocene has ushered at the end of the #holocene destabilizing a climate where agriculture works. More droughts and floods, you had the #ArabSpring because of low crop yields and things have tumbled into unending war and the massive exodus of populations. 

We are nomadic hunter-gatherers in the heart, mind, and body. Our reaction to being cornered is to move. That's why we have fission-fusion societies. It's conflict resolution, community building, and ecological functioning all in one. Egalitarianism lives in our primal anarchy. Empires tremble, we leave. Crops fail, move on.

The history of humans since civilization has an underside of all the colonial and imperial expansion and hegemonic restriction that is all desertion, mutiny, revolt, disruption, sabotage, and outright resistance. In our genes.  We aren't domesticated, we are captives. The domestication process is always incomplete because it must tear apart and fight who we are. It's concrete and steel, prayer and ballot, walls and malls, soldiers and citizens.

Abusive relationships work by making you complicit. 

So how does this all play into #Covid_19?

Mass society has always been a petri dish for disease. That comes with sedentism, that comes with livestock and enclosed living. Not all diseases lead to pandemics, but a pandemic is really a show stopper, so to speak.

We're living it. 

A more stable empire could take the blow, but remember that the world is both burning, flooding and drying at levels unseen in a climate that could support farming. Wars have been consistently raging for decades. Cheap oil has tipped.

The camel's back was broken long ago. 

Nativist and xenophobic drum pounding happen because the imperialist world demands resources from places and people the more militarized nations feel entitled to. There is no calm before this storm, it's just a storm and more storm. Pathetically also more Stormfront and fascism. 

Does anyone think Trump was going to be the one to weather this storm?

Of course not. The world was already burning before him. He's a symptom of it himself. We're not smarter or more prepped because we have better apps than Rome did. All empires burn.

Some are just faster.  In terms of collapse, a pandemic is not itself the thing to watch. There are 8 billion people on this planet and we've got the greatest wealth disparity since the invention of property. Govts aren't afraid of people dying, they fear breaks in production. That's all that matters. 

This is where we are:

- Global pandemic

- Nations on lockdown

- Businesses restricted

- Debts not being paid

If a State is just its military, lockdowns make the most sense. But production is the core, so breaks in consumption halt the machine.  It's important to point out that this isn't just about accumulated wealth. Economics has imposed on values. Money is wealth because they say it is and we believe it.

There is a TON of crap in a capitalist world. We can talk about wealth redistribution all day, but we all eat.  When the food supply was globalized and run through a chain of international logistics, when the IMF and World Bank forced reductions in agricultural diversity, when tech giants automated farming... well, that sealed the fate of civilization.

We need to eat. Just because so little of the population is involved in food production doesn't negate its importance or indicate its simplicity. All empires die of hubris in the end. But the food system is technologically dependent and intertwined with all the same old consumer pipelines. In a house of cards, these are the ones to watch:

- Food supply

- Fuel production

- Distribution networks

As Fagan indicates, if things are teetering, then pulling any of those can collapse the rest. In an integrated capital-power vacuum, nothing is extricable from others. 

This is why #CoronavirusPandemic is unique and unprecedented: never before has so much been so immediately impacted and put on hold. Never has so much power been held by so few and such fragile hands.  Most collapse scenarios rely on hits to infrastructure. All of that ties directly to the economy, but the infrastructure is more concrete. And that is why a pandemic is such a threat: remove production and the systems necessary to sustain power take the hit. Work is infrastructure. That's what makes this hard to predict, collapse generally is and those watching are just looking at the best ways to sustain themselves and profit of the chaos. They aren't a guide to use. Past collapse is more telling. 

At what point do people stop believing the lies of govt? 

The disease itself is a threat on a personal level, which is how we, a social animal, see it. That's why we're afraid and confused. That's why we should be afraid and confused. We're concerned about sustaining life. They're concerned with sustaining control. Innately different. In terms of collapse, pandemic is a massive disruption. It doesn't mean that civ won't survive it, but it won't survive it unscathed. The core is shaken and the ripples will continue to spread out and amplify other hostilities.

That includes the potential for revolt. Which it should. In terms of studying past collapse, this is my primary takeaway:

- Don't trust govts and corps. Ever.

- Don't expect any system to bail you out. They won't.

- All fixes are temporary to keep orders moving.

- They don't care about you. Any of them. 

In any survival situation, the thing that will surely kill you is a false hope that rescue is coming. It might today and not tomorrow.bAt this point, no one knows what is going on. Politicians are politicking. Corporations are cashing in. It's not good. It's unprecedented. It's vital to look at this with open eyes and be prepared to move. Practice #mutualaid and start thinking outside your bug out bags.

They may call martial law, they may not. But at any point, just be prepared to leave. 

Our lineage is mostly refugees. What I'm not saying is that #Covid_19 is the final straw. What I am saying is that it's more tinder in a world on fire. We do not know what it could be. But we do nothing for anyone to pretend its something other than what it is: unprecedented. And absolute. Normal is gone.